INSIGHT

At the turn of the year, the Western economies were braced for a nasty recession. But as the halfway point of 2023 ranges into view, forecasts have become a touch more optimistic. Whilst no one would call the economic outlook positive, it is at least not as negative as once feared.

One golden rule of macroeconomic analysis is to never overreact to a single datapoint. But two ‘blips’ in a row start to look a little more concerning.

Speaking exclusively to WealthBriefing, Richard Farmiloe, partner and lead fund manager of the Sorbus Vector Fund highlights the benefits of investing in consumer staples such as Unilever and Diageo.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the recent forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS are a function of rising interest rates and bad decisions. There will be other banks suffering from the same dynamic.

Bank runs are almost as old as banking. But familiarity does not make them any more comfortable when they happen.

Richard Farmiloe, partner and lead fund manager of SORBUS VECTOR highlights his top stock picks this month for WealthBriefing.

Last summer’s British heat wave was an excellent example of what behavioural economists tend to call recency bias, or the tendency of people to over fix on recent experience.

At first glance, the global economy of 2023 looks set to an unwanted repeat of 2022 – a year dominated by uncomfortably high inflation, slowing growth, rising interest rates and squeezed consumers.

Economists are very bad at spotting recessions in advance. The Treasury publishes a monthly roundup of independent forecasts going all the way back to 1985. The really striking thing when looking back over it is that consensus forecasts failed to spot the recessions of 2020, 2008 or 1990 until months after they had already begun.

Rocketing inflation, soaring interest rates, war in Europe and British political turbulence (to put it mildly) have grabbed investors and analysts’ attention in 2022. However, in world-historical terms, the collapse in Chinese growth is the big news.

As investors face increasingly volatile markets, high inflation rates and geopolitical tensions, Richard Farmiloe, fund manager of SORBUS VECTOR highlights his top stock pick for WealthBriefing.

In an ideal world fiscal and monetary would work to support each other. Sadly the world is often far from ideal but rarely has there been a divergence as sharp as the one currently being experienced in Britain.